Bitcoin's Never Look Back Price
As described in this article by Timothy Peterson
Basic NLB
Bitcoin has a relatively unnoticed and — for most — unknown characteristic. I call it the “Never Look Back Price.” The NLB price is the last time bitcoin was at a particular price level. Once it reached that price, it only proceeded up, it never retraced to that value again.
| Date | |
| Price | |
| NLB |
Regression
I have plotted these NLB prices on a lognormal scale over time. The result was amazing. The horizontal scale is “square root time”, which is just regular time plotted on a different scale. It essentially equates traditional time-value of money concepts to bitcoin's adoption rate, and therefore price.
| Date | |
| NLB | |
| Max | |
| Expected | |
| Min |
Linear Scales
The NLB price represents a floor value for bitcoin. The actual price could be higher, but significantly higher prices will fall back down to the floor value. The NLB price is a sustainable price over the long term.
| Date | |
| Price | |
| Max | |
| Expected | |
| Min |
Data Points
Is this NLB price a trend that will continue? Like I mentioned before, we don't know what the next lowest price is until we hit that price. There will undoubtedly be skeptics who criticize this methodology, and healthy professional skepticism is beneficial because it keeps expectations realistic. On the other hand, would you bet money that the price will fall substantially, say, to $4,000, given the ten-year history of the Never Look Back price? I think that might take some guts, to say the least.
Today
| Max price | |
| Expected price | |
| Min price |
5 Years
Goals
“Bitcoin's Never Look Back price is a picture of bitcoin adoption.”
Original Article by Timothy Peterson